Research

Carson Rodrigues

Independent researcher working at the intersection of production AI systems and their measurement — voice-AI latency, LLMOps, the Model Context Protocol, multi-agent reliability, human–AI trust, and clinical ML. 20 papers — 1 published in the ICANN 2026 proceedings (Springer LNCS), with 10 more under peer review and 11 live preprints. Most studies are built on systems I ship in production, so the methods are evaluated under real workloads rather than in isolation.

iD0009-0001-7195-6742carson@celabe.comAffiliation: Celabe, Research Division
20
Papers
1
Accepted
10
Under review
11
Live preprints
Voice AI systems & latencyLLMOpsModel Context Protocol (MCP)Multi-agent reliabilityHuman–AI trustAgentic safetyClinical ML

Papers & preprints

Updated October 2026
Published · Springer LNCSICANN 2026 · Springer LNCS·Conference · Springer LNCS proceedings, Part V, pp. 450–461

Latency Optimization in Production Voice AI Pipelines: A Systems Approach

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Oysturn VasiD (University of Waterloo)

A systems-level latency study of a production voice-AI platform (Anthropic Claude intent detection + ElevenLabs TTS over a NestJS WebSocket pipeline). The central finding is that running intent detection and TTS concurrently — rather than shaving any single stage — is the highest-leverage optimization, cutting median end-to-end latency from 3,277 ms to 1,909 ms.

−41.8% p50 latency (3,277 → 1,909 ms)Voice AILatencyLLM systems

Published 15 September 2026 in Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2026 (35th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Padua, Italy), Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 450–461. Peer-reviewed; the DOI above is the version of record. Poster session Thursday 17 September 2026.

Preprint · arXivarXiv preprint·Preprint

MCP Server Architecture Patterns

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Oysturn VasiD (University of Waterloo)

A pattern catalogue for production Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers — a Gamma-format taxonomy, anti-patterns, and cross-cutting concerns — validated with a real inter-rater reliability study (kappa = 0.76). Recommends a scoped Proxy Aggregator for large tool catalogues.

Inter-rater kappa = 0.76MCPSoftware architectureAgents

Condensed magazine version submitted to IEEE Software on 29 June 2026 and not accepted after peer review (decision 13 October 2026); the extended 9-page version is openly available on arXiv (cs.AI primary, cs.SE cross-list) under the fuller title “MCP Server Architecture Patterns for LLM-Integrated Applications”. A tool-count analysis in the first arXiv version was withdrawn in October 2026 because its numbers could not be traced to production records.

Preprint · arXivarXiv preprint (cs.CL)·Preprint

When Do LLMs Replace Fine-Tuned NLU? A Decision Framework for Intent Detection

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Oysturn VasiD (University of Waterloo)

A decision framework for choosing between LLM classifiers and fine-tuned NLU on noisy production transcripts. Shows that full-data TF-IDF still reaches 95.2% on ATIS, and maps the regimes where an LLM-based intent classifier is — and is not — worth its cost and latency.

95.2% on ATIS (full-data TF-IDF baseline)NLUIntent detectionLLM evaluation

Preprint openly available on arXiv (cs.CL primary, cs.AI cross-list). Submitted to AAAI-27 on 1 July 2026 and not accepted (Phase 1 decision, 24 September 2026). The study continues as Paper 20 below, a sole-authored follow-up with new experiments and corrected conclusions; it withdraws this version's ASR comparison, which gave the LLM 4 candidate labels and the baseline 151.

Submitted · ARR October 2026ACL Rolling Review (target: ACL 2027)·Conference · double-blind

Labeled Examples Decide the Gap Between Prompted LLMs and Fine-Tuned Intent Encoders: An Audit of Five LLMs and Three Decision Models

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Should a fine-tuned intent classifier be replaced by a prompted LLM? This study compares a tuned RoBERTa, SetFit and simpler encoders with five prompted LLMs and three decision models (which return a probability per label) on ATIS and CLINC150. Zero-shot, every LLM trails the encoder by 13.4 to 27.5 points on ATIS; with 20 retrieved training examples an LLM comes within 1.6 points on ATIS and exceeds the encoder on CLINC150. From label names alone, the best decision model matches the encoder's CLINC150 in-scope accuracy (95.8 vs 96.3) but trails it by 6.4 points on ATIS. A validation-tuned threshold lets the encoder beat every zero-shot LLM on both in-scope accuracy and out-of-scope recall.

Zero-shot LLMs trail a tuned encoder by 13.4–27.5 pts on ATISNLUIntent detectionLLM evaluationDecision models

Continues the co-authored study arXiv:2608.20371 with new experiments (five LLM families, three decision models, tuned and thresholded encoders) and corrected conclusions.

Revising · earlier version on arXivRevising · earlier version on arXiv (cs.LG)·Preprint (earlier version)

Hyperparameter Advisors Built on Three LLMs Did Not Beat Default-Seeded TPE on Small Tabular Tasks: Four of 15 Pre-Specified Hypothesis Tests Passed, and the Comparison Depends on TPE's Start-Up Trials

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Oysturn VasiD (University of Waterloo), Isaiah Abner DCosta (University of Queensland), Nithish Kumar Prabhakaran (University of Queensland)

Does an LLM hyperparameter advisor beat classical search once both start from the same place? Three LLM advisors (Claude Haiku 4.5, GPT-4.1 mini and Llama 3.3 70B) were tested against Optuna-TPE seeded with the same default configuration on small tabular tasks, under hypotheses fixed before the runs. None of the three beat default-seeded TPE; four of the fifteen pre-specified tests passed, and the comparison turns on how many start-up trials TPE is given. The earlier arXiv version found that the advisor's strong first guess was a fixed default, not a model output; this version tests that finding across three model families.

No LLM advisor beat default-seeded TPE · 4 of 15 tests passedAutoMLHyperparameter optimizationLLMs

The arXiv preprint (cs.LG · cs.AI) is the earlier, single-model version. ACML 2026 did not accept it (decision 23 September 2026) after four reviews and a rebuttal that ran every experiment the reviewers asked for. The three-model rerun (total model cost US$1.37) and its data are archived on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23334877); the manuscript is packaged for Applied Soft Computing (Elsevier) and has not been submitted yet.

Resubmitted to IJHCI · preprint liveIJHCI·Journal · review article

Personality Traits and Trust in Large Language Models: A Scoping Review

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Simran Marian Rebello (Celabe)

A scoping review of how personality traits shape user trust in large language models, extended toward agentic (action-taking) systems with a set of testable propositions for future empirical work.

Scoping review + agentic propositionsHuman–AI trustPersonalityScoping review

Preprint openly available on PsyArXiv. Resubmitted to the International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction (IJHCI) on 16 July 2026 via a Taylor & Francis transfer; returned to the authors for submission fixes on 6 October 2026 and resubmitted on 10 October 2026, retitled around its findings, awaiting the editor. The charted dataset and supplement are public on OSF (osf.io/fzvkt). Novelty: Big Five traits as a moderator of LLM trust calibration.

Preprint · correction in preparationarXiv preprint (cs.AI) · correction in preparation·Preprint

Hallucination as Context Drift: Synchronization Protocols for Multi-Agent LLM Systems

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

The arXiv preprint framed a class of multi-agent LLM hallucination as context drift between agents' world-states, introduced the Context Divergence Score (CDS) and the Shared State Verification Protocol (SSVP), and reported that full-broadcast synchronization raises hallucination. A pre-registered, assertion-aware re-score in October 2026 showed the contradiction judges were counting agents that report a conflict as agents that hallucinate it. Scored that way, the full-broadcast effect is not distinguishable from zero, and no teammate adopted the wrong value. The headline claim in the preprint is therefore withdrawn, and the paper is being reframed around the measurement finding.

Headline effect withdrawn after a pre-registered re-scoreMulti-agentReliabilityEvaluation

arXiv:2606.21666 still states the earlier claim; a replacement version is in preparation. The reframed manuscript, 'Contradiction Judges Score Reported Conflicts as Hallucinations: An Assertion-Aware Re-Score of Multi-Agent LLM Outputs', is packaged for Information Processing & Management (Elsevier) and waits on human labels before submission. Earlier: JAIR declined the first version without external review (21 August 2026).

Submitted · medRxiv preprintBMC Personalized Medicine·Journal · BMC (Springer Nature)

A Zero-Shot Decision Model (Jev) Matches a Trained Classifier but Ranks Its Own Errors Worse: Calibrated, Split-Conformal Next-Procedure Recommendation in General Dentistry

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Steffie Dione Rebello (KLE (co-PI))

A machine-learning approach to predicting dental procedures from patient records, evaluated on a synthetic pipeline benchmark plus a real public-data benchmark (AHRQ MEPS 2023 dental visits), with calibrated abstention for out-of-distribution charts. A zero-shot decision model (Jev), which returns a probability for every option, matches the trained classifier's top-1 accuracy but is overconfident and ranks its own errors worse, so the reject option is best built on the classical model.

MEPS: ECE 0.031 · split-conformal selective risk 51.5% → 42.0% at 48.7% coverage · classical 100 vs LLM 72 correct of 200 (paired p = 0.0003)Clinical MLHealthcare AIPrediction

Carson and Steffie share first authorship (equal contribution). Preprint live on medRxiv (v4, 21 July 2026, with TRIPOD checklists as supplementary material); v5, with the new title and the decision-model arm, was submitted on 10 October 2026 and is in medRxiv screening. JMIRx Med declined an earlier version at the editorial screening stage in July 2026 without sending it to peer review. Submitted to the Journal of Medical Systems (Springer) on 10 October 2026, which declined it at editorial screening on 17 October 2026 without sending it to peer review; it was transferred the same day to BMC Personalized Medicine, where it is under consideration. The code release (v2.0.0) is archived at Zenodo doi:10.5281/zenodo.23275657.

Submitted to IEEE AIEI 2027IEEE AIEI 2027·Conference · IEEE Xplore

Fidelity Assessment for Digital Sketching: Why SSIM Fails on Line Art, and What to Use Instead

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Siddhant Desai (Simplit Software Solutions), Amey Kerkar (Don Bosco College of Engineering), Yeshudas Muttu (Don Bosco College of Engineering), Nihal Kamat (Trellissoft), Ritika Ghanti (Cramer America), Saish Pawar (Oneshield)

LearnSketch is a mobile sketching framework that scores a drawing against an automatically extracted reference outline and returns a numeric score plus a visual error map, with the Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) as that score. Measuring what SSIM returns for drawings known to be bad: over 65 references an empty canvas averages 78.9% and reaches 98.0%, outranking a correct drawing displaced by two pixels on 93.8% of references and a drawing of the wrong reference on 96.9%. The cause is sparsity, and blank-canvas SSIM tracks reference ink density at r = −0.952. Intersection-over-union on dilated edge maps separates acceptable from unacceptable drawings far better (AUC 0.984 against 0.766 for SSIM), is zero for an empty canvas, and costs 0.10 ms against SSIM's 2.76 ms. Learned perceptual metrics (LPIPS 0.995, DISTS 0.994) score marginally higher but still rank a blank canvas above a wrong drawing on 24.6% and 13.8% of references.

Empty canvas scores 78.9% SSIM on average · IoU AUC 0.984 vs SSIM 0.766, at 0.10 msImage similaritySSIMMetric auditSketching

Seven-author collaboration (Carson first author). Submitted on 2 September 2026 to the 2nd IEEE International Conference on AI Engineering and Innovation (AIEI 2027; Bangalore, 21 to 23 January 2027, hybrid; financially co-sponsored by IEEE TEMS, proceedings in IEEE Xplore); notification due 30 October 2026. Earlier versions were not accepted at IC-SIT 2026 and were screened out at ICONAT 2026. The audit harness and the scripts that regenerate every number are public: github.com/rodriguescarson/learnsketch-fidelity-audit (MIT), archived at Zenodo doi:10.5281/zenodo.22237791.

Stage-1 Registered ReportPCI Registered Reports → Peer Community Journal·Registered Report

Personality and Over-Delegation to Agentic LLMs

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

An empirical follow-up to the trust scoping review (Paper 05), testing its propositions on over-delegation to agentic, action-taking LLMs. Stage-1 manuscript complete, with the jsPsych experiment harness built and a preregistered target of N = 500, at which both confirmatory tests reach at least 0.80 power.

Stage-1 complete · preregistered N = 500Agentic safetyHuman–AI trustOver-delegation

Stage-1 Registered Report on the PCI-RR route (Peer Community Journal); not yet submitted, because ethics review and participant funding are still being arranged.

Under review at EAAIEngineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence·Journal · Elsevier

Done Is Not Correct: Measuring Silent Failures and Self-Verification Calibration When LLM Agents Take CAD Actions

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Clive Rodrigues, Aravind Reddy G

A reproducible benchmark for agentic CAD. When an LLM agent writes parametric CAD code from a natural-language spec, syntactic success (the code runs, the geometry renders) decouples from semantic correctness (right dimensions, valid constraints, manufacturable features). The harness measures that silent-failure gap directly and tests whether claim-conditioned self-verification closes it.

468 runs · single-shot 14.1% silent failures (ECE 0.32) → 3.2% with enforced self-checks · expert–grader agreement κ = 0.64 (0.87 excluding one ambiguous task)Agentic safetyReliabilityEvaluation

Benchmark complete (4 models × 3 conditions); independent CAD-engineer validation done (blind pass/fail scoring of 81 parts). Submitted to the ASME Journal of Computing and Information Science in Engineering on 4 August 2026 (JCISE-26-1424); the editor returned it at pre-screening on 10 August without review, as a benchmark rather than a new modelling methodology, after JAIR had declined it on scope the same week as better suited to an application venue. Submitted to Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence (Elsevier) on 4 September 2026 after a rigor pass that added a tolerance-band sensitivity analysis and a disclosure of the pre-registered predictions; the benchmark, all attempt records, and the analysis code are public (GitHub, Zenodo doi:10.5281/zenodo.22286324). The arXiv preprint is pending moderation.

In preparation · MARS audit completeJournal TBD (health informatics)·Journal

Oravira: Design, Privacy-by-Design Architecture, and App-Quality Audit of a Mobile Oral-Health App for People Living with HIV

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe), Steffie Dione Rebello (KLE)

Oravira is a privacy-by-design mobile app that helps people living with HIV self-manage their oral health. The paper documents the system architecture, the privacy model that keeps sensitive status data off any server, and a MARS-based quality audit of the app-store landscape it sits in — a design-and-architecture contribution that stands on its own, without patient data.

App live on iOS + Android · MARS app-store auditClinical MLHealthcare AIPrivacy

Reframed in July 2026: the clinical evaluation route through the KLE ethics committee and CTRI trial registration is no longer part of this paper, so it needs no ethics approval; a KLE-run study is referenced as future work only. The MARS app-store audit is complete: a two-strand systematic search across both stores (985 candidate apps screened) found no other consumer app at the HIV × oral-health intersection, and two raters scored the eight comparison apps with high agreement (ICC(2,1) = 0.946). Oravira is scored by the second rater only and is left out of every ranking, since the authors built it. The manuscript and venue are next.

Revising for resubmissionNext venue to be decided; REALM @ EMNLP 2026 workshop declined·Revising for resubmission

DevTwin: Automatic Coverage Overstates How Well a Passively-Formed Memory Knows a Developer

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Personal-memory systems for language agents are usually scored on retrieval: whether a relevant chunk can be found in a stored history. DevTwin argues this misses what a personal memory is for, which is to know the person rather than the transcript, and benchmarks whether a memory built passively from a developer's own public artifacts (git history, papers, project documents) can answer identity questions about them.

Human raters put identity knowledge at 0.45 where the automatic proxy saturates (paired gap 0.55, n = 10)Agent memoryEvaluationPersonalization

Declined at the REALM workshop (EMNLP 2026) on 8 September 2026, a non-archival venue, so the work remains unpublished and free to place elsewhere. Two of the three reviewers recommended acceptance and rated the metric-reliability result the most valuable part; the dissenting review asked for a larger rated cohort and an independent annotator, which is fair. A revision completed in September 2026 narrows the claims to what ten raters support and adds the appendices the reviewers asked for; the multi-subject study with independent annotation is the follow-up, and the next venue is being chosen.

Under review at NBDTNeurons, Behavior, Data analysis, and Theory (NBDT)·Journal

Predicted Cortex Is Not a Domain-General Prior: A Matched-Control Audit of Brain-Encoding Features for Video Memorability

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Do a brain-encoding foundation model's predicted fMRI responses forecast video memorability better than the visual backbone they are built on? Using the TRIBE encoder over its own V-JEPA2 backbone as a matched control, the answer flips with the dataset rather than yielding a single winner. The reversal is tested directly as a dataset-by-representation interaction, not inferred from two separate comparisons. The predicted-brain projection carries a small but real, vision-orthogonal signal that helps on one dataset and not the other, which cautions against treating a brain-encoding readout as a free upgrade over the backbone.

Dataset-dependent reversal, tested as an interaction: +0.097 (95% CI [+0.032, +0.160], p = 0.001) · Memento10k: backbone 0.594 > brain 0.544 · VideoMem: brain 0.415 > backbone 0.368 · complete separation over 10 CV seeds (0/10 and 10/10); cross-dataset transfer inherits the flipNeuro-AIRepresentation learningEvaluation

Preprint openly available on arXiv (2607.16292, v4). The derived predicted-response arrays are released for reproducibility with InterDigital's written approval (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21532633 plus a GitHub release); the source datasets and their memorability scores are not redistributed. Results were shared with the dataset authors first, and the VideoMem author replied positively and raised a possible benchmark collaboration for September 2026.

Submitted · Minds and MachinesSubmitted to Minds and Machines (Springer) · Zenodo preprint·Perspective · position paper

Hallucination Is Generative Memory With Its Verifier Turned Down: One Constraint Axis Links Dreaming Sleep and LLM Confabulation

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

A perspective paper arguing that dreaming and LLM hallucination are two expressions of one computation: generative reconstruction from distributed memory under incomplete constraints. Neither the sleeping brain nor an autoregressive model retrieves stored records; both synthesise output by recombining learned representations. A four-stage account (encoding, latent representation, generative reconstruction, reality verification) locates the difference between a reliable output and a hallucination or a dream on one ordinal axis: the strength of the constraints and verification acting on the generator, attenuated in dreaming sleep and absent in free decoding. The paper states where the mapping holds and where it breaks, recasts mitigation as restoring verification rather than removing generation, and sets out five falsifiable predictions with their current status. A small pre-registered test on 300 PopQA questions finds the hallucination rate of two language models falling at every step from forced closed-book answering to open-book answering with a verifier (50.7 to 7.0 percent and 46.0 to 5.3 percent), and falling with entity popularity when unconstrained.

Four-stage framework · one ordinal constraint axis · 5 predictions (2 partially tested) · PopQA vignette passed on 2 modelsMemoryHallucinationNeuro-AI

Sole-authored perspective paper; 83 references independently verified against Crossref and arXiv. Retitled after a September 2026 audit; the constraint axis is now operationalised and tested by a small pre-registered vignette (code and cached responses released). Section 5.4 anchors the controlled-generation argument to Paper 17's measurement.

Submitted · Int. J. Data Science and AnalyticsSubmitted to the International Journal of Data Science and Analytics · preprint on Zenodo·Journal · Springer · application case study

A Hosted LLM Fine-Tuning Service Kept Most Ordinary Training Answers but Overwrote Many Dataset-Specific Definitions and Abstentions: A User-Side Case Study With Answer Keys and Replicates

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Hosted services now fine-tune large language models on a customer's data, rewrite that data first, and report a quality grade and a win rate judged by another model. This application case study audits one such service from the customer's side with replicate runs and answer keys the service did not produce: 384 jobs on chart question answering in July and early August 2026 and 97 jobs on a second base model across 16 other held-out domains in September. Identical runs differed with standard deviations of 2.75 and 3.09 points, so single-run differences under about 8 points are noise. In July the default score ordered 44.2% of same-dataset run pairs differently from the held-out score, which was missing for 31% to 42% of succeeded jobs. Against keys computed from the plotted values, the service's rewriting kept most value, change and extreme answers correct but overwrote many targets of two kinds: a definition the dataset states (Tufte's Lie Factor) and abstentions about countries absent from the chart. It made 8.2% to 19.6% of correct targets incorrect (two parsers and a model's reading of 100 rows), and those two question types hold 59% to 89% of the damage. The reported quality improvement did not track correctness (Spearman rho -0.58 and -0.35 under the two parsers, 13 datasets). Augmentation raised the held-out score on 10 of 10 paired seeds, as the service's own judge scored it. The case yields a checklist for users and shows where automated data checks need a human reading.

481 fine-tuning jobs · default score misorders 44.2% of run pairs · rewriting overwrote 8.2–19.6% of correct targetsData-centric MLMeasurementLLMOpsReliability

Sole-authored; spun out of a public model-adaptation challenge. The service is deliberately not named in the paper, and its vendor received the full findings, with job identifiers and reproduction detail, before publication. Preprint published on Zenodo (CC BY 4.0) on 15 August 2026 and submitted to DMLR the same day; DMLR returned it without review on 2 October 2026, with no specific reason given. In October 2026 every statistic was recomputed from the per-job records and nine statements of the August preprint were corrected (for example, the paired gain is +13.4 on 10 of 10 seeds, not +14.4 on 11 of 11); that version was published as Zenodo version 2 on 11 October 2026 with the anonymised per-job data and analysis code, and the journal Machine Learning (Springer) declined it without review on 12 October 2026 as specific to one platform and resting on the platform's own scores. The revision adds answer keys for the rewritten training data that the service did not produce, 97 jobs on a second base model across 16 other held-out domains, and planted-defect tests of the audit's own checks. Under an interim title it was submitted as a proposal to Harvard Data Science Review on 12 October 2026; on 17 October 2026 the journal did not invite a full manuscript, judging the scope too limited for its broad readership. Revised as an application case study and retitled, it was published as Zenodo version 3 on 18 October 2026 with the manuscript, the anonymised per-job data and the analysis code, and submitted to the International Journal of Data Science and Analytics (Springer) on 19 October 2026. All external citations verified against arXiv and CrossRef.

Submitted · PacificVis 2027Submitted to PacificVis 2027 · earlier version on Zenodo·Benchmark · dataset

Lie Factors by Construction: Exact Deception-Severity Labels for Parameterised Chart Distortions, and an Inverted Axis That Reverses Three of Ten Models' Readings

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Charts can mislead while every printed number is correct: a truncated axis inflates a change and an inverted axis reverses it. Benchmarks label misleading charts by class, not by how much they mislead. This paper renders charts from real Our World in Data series under distortions whose parameters are set, so the Lie Factor (the effect shown over the effect in the data) is read from the construction rather than annotated. The release holds 2,430 question-and-answer rows over 212 series with 33 machine-checkable answer fields, 636 exact Lie Factors, 954 renders, and an atlas of 20 published misleading charts. Under protocols committed before any model call, nine vision-language and decision models read 210 inverted-axis series, each paired with its faithful render: seven read more inverted than faithful charts in the wrong direction (exact McNemar, Holm p < 0.05) and two read most inverted charts backwards; with the pilot model, the inverted axis reverses three of ten models' readings. Truncated and aspect-ratio-altered axes left direction unchanged.

2,430 exact-ground-truth rows · 636 exact lie factors · inverted axis reverses 3 of 10 models (210 pairs, pre-registered)Chart understandingVision-language modelsRLVRBenchmarksShortcut learning

Sole-authored. The dataset, 954 chart renders, and the Deception Atlas are released under CC BY 4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21939803); the severity target is computed from each chart's construction, so the reward needs no human rater and no judge model. The RLVR training runs follow the fixed plan and will appear in a follow-up paper. Preprint published on Zenodo on 15 August 2026 and submitted to DMLR the same day; DMLR returned it without review on 2 October 2026, and the revised version, retitled and with a pre-registered test of the inverted axis on ten vision-language and decision models (US$2.09 of API calls), was submitted to the PacificVis 2027 conference track on 11 October 2026. An October 2026 audit found that the lie-factor label is a vertical-scale ratio rather than Tufte's original definition, and that the "honest-truncated" control charts are drawn at about 1.7 times the faithful scale; the revision states both. Companion to Paper 15.

Submitted · IEEE TVCGSubmitted to IEEE TVCG · Zenodo preprint v3·Interpretability

Chart-Deception Probes in Vision-Language Models Rank Synthetic Axis Exaggeration but Do Not Reliably Beat a Mechanism-Only Baseline, and Qwen Probes Reverse on Real Charts

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Vision-language models (VLMs) read and check charts, and misleading charts often fool them. We ask whether a linear probe on a VLM's activations can tell that a chart misleads, and how much. We render 1,685 charts from real statistical series under parameterized axis distortions, label each with its vertical-scale ratio (an operationalization of Tufte's Lie Factor), and probe four VLMs (Qwen2.5-VL 3B, 7B, 72B; Gemma-3-4B) under a pre-registered plan. On these charts, whether a chart misleads is decodable at nearly every layer (test AUROC 0.99). The probes fire on 65 to 86% of truncated-axis controls the generator labels honest; those renders exaggerate, probe scores rise with it, and firing does not differ detectably by chart type. Within truncated charts the probes rank exaggeration (Spearman 0.35 to 0.62) but none clearly beats a predictor knowing only the distortion type. The model's stated Lie Factor is worse than a constant. On 2,572 real Misviz charts the frozen 7B and 72B probes score truncated axes below charts without a misleader (AUROC 0.43 and 0.24) and fire on 88% and 89% of the latter. Exploratory runs give 0.33 at 3B and 0.74 in Gemma, whose probe scores any misleader as high (0.75).

AUROC 0.99 on generated charts · no clear gain over a mechanism-only baseline · real Misviz charts: Qwen 7B/72B AUROC 0.43/0.24InterpretabilityVision-language modelsChart understandingProbing

Sole-authored follow-up to Paper 16, built on its PolyChart generator. Version 3 on Zenodo (13 October 2026; doi:10.5281/zenodo.23333641, all versions under concept doi:10.5281/zenodo.22134653) corrects a label defect found in an October 2026 audit: the "honest-truncated" control charts of the Paper 16 generator are drawn exaggerated, not undistorted, so the earlier reading that the probes flag honest charts is withdrawn. All four models were re-extracted and every analysis re-run under an amendment fixed before the run, and a pre-registered test on 2,572 real-world Misviz charts was added, on which the frozen Qwen 7B and 72B probes score truncated axes below charts without a misleader. Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (TVCG) on 15 October 2026, under double-anonymous review.

In preparationIn preparation · arXiv and Zenodo after the final leaderboard·Preprint (planned)

When Frozen-Opponent Replays Overstate: An Audited Study of Opponent-Conditioned Policy Switching in a Two-Player Farming Simulation

Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

Kaggriculture is a Kaggle simulation competition in which two bots run farms and sell into a shared market whose prices fall as either player sells; 10,246 teams were ranked by a Bradley-Terry fit over head-to-head games. The study audits an evaluation instrument that replays a candidate bot into real ladder games with the opponent frozen to its recorded actions on the official engine, corrected for price externalities. On 543 real games the instrument located 84% of the baseline's losses in one opponent regime, and nine families of cheaper interventions failed pre-registered rules. An opponent-conditioned portfolio raised replayed wins from 46.9% to 57.4% and held on 601 untouched older games, but a paired live control on its first ladder games found most of that gain gone. The paper reports the method, the negative results and the replay-to-ladder gap.

Replayed wins 46.9% → 57.4%; most of the gain gone liveGame AICounterfactual evaluationNegative results

Draft v1 written during the competition (1 October 2026). The final analysis reruns the paired live control on every ladder game after the evaluation closed on 14 October 2026, adds team-clustered bootstrap intervals and the final leaderboard rank; the preprint goes to arXiv and Zenodo after that.

In preparationIn preparation · journal chosen by the lead author's team·Journal article (planned)

Effect of Implant Depth and Angulation on the Accuracy of Intraoral Scans Made With Scan Bodies and Scannable Healing Abutments: An In Vitro Study

Atrey J. Pai Khot (Goa Dental College & Hospital), Anushka Kunkolienkar, Carson RodriguesiD (Celabe)

An in vitro study of how implant depth and angulation affect the accuracy of digital implant impressions in a partially edentulous posterior mandible. Implants were placed at two subcrestal depths (2 mm and 4 mm) and two angulations (0° and 15° lingual) using tooth-supported surgical guides, then scanned with conventional scan bodies and with scannable healing abutments, which can be scanned without breaking the peri-implant seal. Trueness and precision are compared across the 2 × 2 × 2 design against laboratory reference scans.

2 depths × 2 angulations × 2 scan componentsDigital dentistryDental CADIn vitro study

Led by Dr. Atrey J. Pai Khot (Public Health Dentistry, Goa Dental College & Hospital), with Anushka Kunkolienkar. Carson did the dental CAD design work and reviewed the drafts, including a recomputation of the ANOVA tables; the lead author's team writes and submits the paper.

Several papers are under double-blind review, so author lists and venues may be anonymized in the submitted copies. DOIs are linked where a preprint or the published version of record is public; full manuscripts, data, and code for any work in progress are available on request — carson@celabe.com. ORCID: 0009-0001-7195-6742.

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